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01.07.07 TVR Hotline: First two days of CES
In tonight's Hotline:
Looking for relevance
Second time here at the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, and I'll have to admit to its already being a bit overwhelming. And the pomp hasn't even started yet! I queued up in no fewer than ten lines for various press events today, starting at 8am this morning and ending at 10:30pm. A big deal this year's CES is, for sure, with 140,000 attendees expected by week's end.
Despite the ornery crowds - right now mostly made up of the press and analyst forces, with corporate teams likely hitting town this evening - I did manage to hear Mr. Bill Gates speak today, during which time he and his fellow Microsoftians introduced several cool new features in the soon-to-be launched Vista operating system, like a full-motion video desktop picture and a photo editing app that can take the best parts of two pictures and merge them "to show the picture you really wanted to take" but didn't. 3D search was very cool to see, too.
Mr. Gates and Team also demonstrated the transformation of the Xbox 360 into a television set top box with full IPTV capabilities. Finally, Microsoft and an executive from The Ford Motor Company discussed the incorporation of a Microsoft operating system into yet another daily necessity, the car. All were very cool, and once again for me proved Microsoft continues to be at the forefront in tech innovation.
On that topic, Dutch electronics firm Philips harped on the subject of "relevant innovation", which I covered in my somewhat cynical Editor's Note from Issue 22. I had to chuckle at the emphasis, as I won't necessarily agree that a speaker system designed to blow wind in your hair and flash colored lights on your wall while you're playing video games is an innovation I'll qualify as relevant.
In fact, I haven't yet seen much else I'd deem relevant, though certainly I have often been struck with gadget envy, happily clutching my wallet with the surety that almost nothing here at this show - unlike every other part of Vegas - is for sale.
Indeed, Sharp showed off a 108-inch LCD screen for those needing a new type of material with which to build walls in their homes, before which event Philips put on display an elegant (???) diamond encrusted "Ambilight" LCD display - the millionth one they've created. I can imagine what both cost, and I bet I wouldn't be too far off the ultra-rich mark. Lots of show for lots of dough.
Thankfully, I am learning new things about the companies in which we have invested - another core reason I again came to CES this year. This evening, I witnessed from Mowrey Portfolio Compiler (MPC) member Hewlett Packard (HPQ-$42.20) some new MediaSmart televisions and a home server developed with a new consumer media server operating system from Microsoft (also announced today), and spoke with the Real Networks (RNWK-$11.01) folks about competition with Apple and Microsoft, partnerships with portable music player companies and other goings on at the digital media company.
An interesting tidbit I gathered from Real was in response to a query I had regarding the listening habits of subscribers. I figured much of their 3 or so million songs went unplayed. But while the top 50 songs make up about 30 percent of requests, they assured me that between 80 percent and 90 percent of all songs in their library are played by a subscriber at least once a month. The datum provides a compelling argument for looking to third-party solutions like Real's for online content distribution. Studios may attempt digital distribution on their own, but I think they will ultimately fail as potential buyers seek more comprehensive libraries from which to select their downloads.
Tomorrow, the CEO of MPC member Motorola (MOT-$18.94) will speak in the early morning, hopefully addressing the slowdown that prompted last week's warning. BTVP member Nokia (NOK-$19.84) has a couple of new handsets set for release, I think. Intel (INTC-$21.20) is everywhere, so I'll be collecting thoughts from the company's partners as to the MPC member's current technological lead. I also have a meeting scheduled with the new CFO at MPC member SigmaTel (SGTL-$3.74), and will look to get thoughts on the integrations of MPC member PortalPlayer (PLAY-$13.48) into BTVP member Nvidia's (NVDA-$33.66) expanding suite of technologies. MPC member Sprint (S-$19.21) may have some fun things to say, so I'll pay them a visit. And the booths of TVR portfolio members Seagate Technology (STX-$26.01), Symantec (SYMC-$21.34), Texas Instruments (TXN-$28.76) and Western Digital (WDC-$19.90) are intended stops during my travels.
Of that list, MOT, NOK, S, SGTL and TXN currently reside on our menu of recommended stocks.
Bringing home additional "relevant" notes (at least in my opinion) shall be my focus over the next two days. Readers should expect a full review this Thursday evening, with a full-year outlook coming in Issue 23.
M.M.
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